How to evaluate a Louisiana AI data center deal

Why frameworks matter for this market

Louisiana AI data-center announcements arrive with marketing teams, governor's-office press conferences, and headline numbers. Some are real. Some are real but smaller than the press release implies. A few are still in 'site control + LOI' stages and may never reach final investment decision. The job of any honest analyst — journalist, investor, vendor, or economic-development official — is to separate the signal from the announcement theater. The framework below is what we use to score every project we add to the tracker.

What follows is not novel. It is the standard discipline of utility-scale infrastructure diligence applied to the specific document trail Louisiana produces. The goal is to make it reproducible: anyone reading this guide should be able to take a press release and, within 8–12 hours of focused work, produce a defensible view of capex range, online-by probability, and political risk.

Step 1 — Find the LED announcement

Louisiana Economic Development's news feed at opportunitylouisiana.gov is the canonical state-level disclosure venue. Every project that received a state-administered incentive (ITEP, QJP, FastStart, the Industrial Property Tax Exemption) generates an LED press release with the headline numbers: total capex committed, jobs claimed (direct + indirect, sometimes broken out, sometimes not), parish, year online.

The LED announcement is necessary but not sufficient. The 'capex committed' figure is the operator's pledge; the 'jobs claimed' figure is typically a 10-year cumulative estimate including indirect/induced. Don't print either number as fact without the secondary sources below.

Step 2 — Pull the LPSC docket

The Louisiana Public Service Commission is the chokepoint for power. Any project above ~50 MW of new load — which means every announced AI campus — drives at least one of: an Entergy CPCN filing, an IRP addendum, a rider tariff filing, or a special-customer agreement filing. The LPSC docket database at lpscstar.lpsc.louisiana.gov stores the full filings.

Read the filing in this order: (1) the cover page and procedural schedule (gives you the approval timeline), (2) the cost-allocation section (gives you who pays), (3) the witness testimony (gives you the technical specs and supporting data), (4) the intervenor list (tells you who is fighting it). A 200-page CPCN filing is dense but readable in 60–90 minutes if you read in that order.

Step 3 — Check SEC filings

For Meta, Amazon, Hut 8, and Applied Digital, the SEC filing trail is mandatory reading. The 10-Q's MD&A section will discuss material capex commitments; the 10-K risk factor section will discuss timeline risk and regulatory risk. Press releases say 'projected', SEC filings say 'committed' — the gap is informative.

Step 4 — Parish permits

Each campus needs zoning, building, and infrastructure permits at the parish level. These are public records. Most Louisiana parishes publish council agendas and planning commission minutes online; some require records requests.

Step 5 — Power and water mapping

Use the Entergy transmission map and the Louisiana Department of Health water-system database. A campus more than ~10 miles from existing 230 kV transmission needs new transmission built; that adds 18+ months to the timeline.

Step 6 — Peer comparables

Three comparable clusters: Virginia (Loudoun County and Prince William County), Texas (San Antonio, Dallas-Fort Worth, Abilene), Arizona (Phoenix metro). For each, you can pull operator-disclosed metrics: $/MW for greenfield campuses ranges from $8M/MW (mature markets, brownfield retrofits) to $14M/MW (new-market greenfield with full power buildout). Louisiana projects in 2024–2026 are pricing at the high end of that range, which is consistent with a new market with limited existing fiber and substantial transmission build-out costs being absorbed.

Step 7 — Timeline pressure-test

The single most predictive timeline indicator is the LPSC CPCN approval date relative to the operator's stated 'online by' date. If 'online by' is less than 18 months from CPCN approval, the timeline is at high risk; 24+ months is more credible.

How to evaluate a Louisiana AI data center deal

Total time: ~90 minutes

1. Step 1

   Find the LED announcement

   Every state-incentive-eligible Louisiana data-center deal generates an announcement on opportunitylouisiana.gov. Search for the operator name; the LED announcement gives you the headline capex, claimed jobs, parish, and the named incentive programs (ITEP, QJP, FastStart).

2. Step 2

   Pull the LPSC docket

   If the project will draw new power capacity (anything above ~50 MW typically requires utility expansion), the serving utility — usually Entergy Louisiana — will file a Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity (CPCN) or an Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) addendum at the Louisiana Public Service Commission. Search lpscstar.lpsc.louisiana.gov by operator name or by utility name; read the cost-allocation section.

3. Step 3

   Check the SEC filings

   If the operator is publicly traded (Meta, Amazon, Hut 8, Applied Digital), pull EDGAR 8-K, 10-Q, and 10-K filings from the announcement quarter onward. Public companies are required to disclose material capital commitments and contingent liabilities; the 10-Q risk-factor language is often where the project's true budget range and contingencies surface.

4. Step 4

   Read the parish-level permit history

   Each campus needs local permits: zoning, site-plan approval, construction permits, water and sewer hookups. Pull the parish planning commission and police jury / council agendas for the announcement quarter and the following 90 days. Local opposition (or lack of it) shows up here.

5. Step 5

   Map the power and water

   Locate the campus relative to Entergy's existing 230 kV / 500 kV transmission, the nearest substation, and the closest water source (municipal supply or surface water). Power-feasibility and water-feasibility are the two physical constraints most likely to slip the timeline.

6. Step 6

   Compare to peer projects

   Anchor the deal against three comparables: Virginia (Loudoun County hyperscale norms), Texas (San Antonio / Abilene AI campuses), and Arizona (Phoenix-area hyperscale). Compare $/MW, $/sq ft, jobs-per-MW, and capex-per-job. A deal that is more than 20% off the cluster on any one of those ratios deserves scrutiny.

7. Step 7

   Pressure-test the timeline

   Announced 'online by' dates are aspirational. Validate against three independent paths: utility CPCN approval timeline, parish permit issuance dates, and the operator's public construction-start statements. A 24-month online-by claim with no utility filing and no permit issuance at month 6 is a slipped timeline.

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